Tuesday 4 November 2008
My Wait
Well, I remember doing this four years ago with Helen and Jonny, going to bed sure that Bush wouldn't win. Well, this time Ohio and New Mexico have just fallen to the Democrats, meaning that at 200 electoral votes projected, only Florida (27) and California (55) need to go to Obama for a final win. Given the current (somewhat surprising) vote in Florida (2,873,710 McCain, 3,052,972 Obama with over 50% of the votes counted) I think it's game over. So I think it's bed-time...
My Doubt
Let me put it on record that I am dubious about Obama.
Not because I think he isn't a good man - both McCain and Obama are clearly decent people. Or because I think he doesn't have proposals - I know from his manifesto that he does, and I'm in agreement with most of them. For that matter, I'm in agreement with a lot of McCain's too.
It isn't even that I'm in doubt over whether Obama is the better person to be the next president of the US - he has the popular vote and will have the backing of the Senate - which also means that he's more likely to get his ideas passed. Not only that, but the vast majority of his policies are solid, and although his track record has not been as green as that of McCain (I know, it was a surprise to me as well!), he has the intelligence to fight and stick to what he believes in.
No. What I'm concerned about is the aura surrounding him ... particularly amongst his supporters - and that includes the majority of the European media. I think this could mean that even the smallest slip up will lead to these people - of which there are many - being more than a little disappointed. More importantly, to his critics there will be the chance to say 'I told you so'. I truly don't know whether people will have the confidence to stick with him when difficult decisions have to be made.
The reason for my worry is that by having such great faith in one man America seems to be setting itself up for another Blair saga. Now, I always thought Blair was a good decent man, and a good politician. An incredible orator with immense personal charm, he swayed the public into believing in him - that it was his efforts that would lead Britain to the fore of the world stage. And that lasted up until the Iraq war. I remember my peers in high school walking out en masse in protest against the war (which hadn't yet started) leaving me more-or-less alone with the entire school to myself. To them, the war was an inevitability - they were just looking for a chance to skive. And so it was for many. Yes, the war was unpopular, but most people accepted that WMDs existed, and I think many would have been happy to go to war had international consensus been reached. But Blair had to make a difficult decision. He clearly believed there were WMDs - I don't believe for a second that he was lying to the public - and therefore had to make a very difficult choice over whether to follow Bush into the war. And whatever the Labour Government's reasons for this, I think their intentions could be justified at the time. And yet, looking back most people still have this intense hatred against 'Bliar', as they relish calling him. And why? I think a big part of that is their original faith in him.
I think we may all too soon reach a similar point with Obama. I truly hope we don't, and I have faith that he can help to solve many of his own country's problems, as well as those of the world. And whatever people may say, America can still hold huge sway over the world's politicians, and therefore the world. But this unbelievably strong unfaltering belief in another human being to undertake a superhuman task is a fragile thing - and if it breaks, things will never be the same.
Not because I think he isn't a good man - both McCain and Obama are clearly decent people. Or because I think he doesn't have proposals - I know from his manifesto that he does, and I'm in agreement with most of them. For that matter, I'm in agreement with a lot of McCain's too.
It isn't even that I'm in doubt over whether Obama is the better person to be the next president of the US - he has the popular vote and will have the backing of the Senate - which also means that he's more likely to get his ideas passed. Not only that, but the vast majority of his policies are solid, and although his track record has not been as green as that of McCain (I know, it was a surprise to me as well!), he has the intelligence to fight and stick to what he believes in.
No. What I'm concerned about is the aura surrounding him ... particularly amongst his supporters - and that includes the majority of the European media. I think this could mean that even the smallest slip up will lead to these people - of which there are many - being more than a little disappointed. More importantly, to his critics there will be the chance to say 'I told you so'. I truly don't know whether people will have the confidence to stick with him when difficult decisions have to be made.
The reason for my worry is that by having such great faith in one man America seems to be setting itself up for another Blair saga. Now, I always thought Blair was a good decent man, and a good politician. An incredible orator with immense personal charm, he swayed the public into believing in him - that it was his efforts that would lead Britain to the fore of the world stage. And that lasted up until the Iraq war. I remember my peers in high school walking out en masse in protest against the war (which hadn't yet started) leaving me more-or-less alone with the entire school to myself. To them, the war was an inevitability - they were just looking for a chance to skive. And so it was for many. Yes, the war was unpopular, but most people accepted that WMDs existed, and I think many would have been happy to go to war had international consensus been reached. But Blair had to make a difficult decision. He clearly believed there were WMDs - I don't believe for a second that he was lying to the public - and therefore had to make a very difficult choice over whether to follow Bush into the war. And whatever the Labour Government's reasons for this, I think their intentions could be justified at the time. And yet, looking back most people still have this intense hatred against 'Bliar', as they relish calling him. And why? I think a big part of that is their original faith in him.
I think we may all too soon reach a similar point with Obama. I truly hope we don't, and I have faith that he can help to solve many of his own country's problems, as well as those of the world. And whatever people may say, America can still hold huge sway over the world's politicians, and therefore the world. But this unbelievably strong unfaltering belief in another human being to undertake a superhuman task is a fragile thing - and if it breaks, things will never be the same.
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